The studio earns 55% of that take, meaning that youve approached profit, with DVD and merchandising expecting to take care of the rest. Which is to say, its part of a pray/hope/accept/die model. If you enter the blockbuster business in Hollywood, you essentially enter the $80 million opening weekend business. Considering most blockbusters cost $150-$200 million, with marketing sometimes adding up to $100 million, a 3xs multiplier after an $80 million opening ($240 million) might be the best-case scenario, unless youve released a much-better-than-expected film (not likely). You double that number with overseas receipts, youve potentially got $480-$500 million worldwide on a possible $300 million expenditure.

A lot of things have to fall in place, and the film could still hit hard, but profits a longshot. Less than that? Death. Most studios let their blockbuster out in the wild praying for $80 million +, and if tracking isnt nearly as strong, they hope for $60 million, with the expectation that a 3xs multiplier takes you to $180 million. You could have word of mouth and strong legs, or you could even go supernova on DVD. And so, the pray/hope/accept/die model. $40 million is something you have to accept -- yes, lots of people still saw your movie, and maybe a lot of them loved it.

But this stuff works as more of an off-season treat then a big ticket May attraction, so its not a surprise that, even with a few 3D-buffered engagements, this debut didnt match the $17 million January haul for Legion. Side note: this guys got some issues with religion. And so, as a small thank you, it only makes sense that Hollywood allow him to direct his middling sci-fi mashups with his Olivier, , despite zero interest in Priest from even the most ardent genre fan boys. It remains perplexing that anyone allowed to happen, though Hollywood politics clear up such questions. Director , who debuted with last years smash-and-grab D-movie , is actually the founder of The Orphanage, one of the biggest special effects houses in the industry.

The fact that neither film appears to be any good is unfortunate. Borrowed meanwhile, is actually based on a series of books, and a large portion of its audience (readers) are not the type to rush as soon as a movie opens. The fact that three female-centric wedding films should each pull in at least $35 million during the month of May is notable. While handily out grossed last weekend despite appearing on nearly a thousand less screens, it appears some course correction has occurred, with Borrowed only narrowly behind “Broom” at this point. The reason for this is simple: Broom, with its tired class-war romance concept, was a first weekend attraction for highly unadventurous filmgoers.

But they’re expecting to hit a home run every time out, and Iron Man set that standard. Marvel is playing a very dangerous game, and right now they’re getting away with it because they aren’t necessarily breaking the bank on paying for these blockbusters. They got lucky that no one was releasing anything big in Thor’s second weekend, and the international audiences love the movie, so yeah, it’s a hit. Iron Man does 98 mil, IM2 does 128 million, then they should have a somewhat-associated property hit 80 to keep their business going.

Look at what happened at Universal -- they fired their President of Production the weekend after Fast Five hit. While there were a totally independent series of political strategies beyond that decision, the point is, Hollywood is ruthless about this shit. But, the way Hollywood (unfortunately) works is that they jump on properties, they move quickly on ideas. But, the way Hollywood works is, after that first, or maybe after that second weekend, people will be talking about a sequel, or they won’t. He’s talked a lot. Kevin Feige has talked about a Thor 2 -- he’s also talked about a Hawkeye movie. No one really does the “wait and see” approach, because if they do, they get fired and replaced.

But they want THEATRICAL profit, and they want it IMMEDIATELY, and that means $500 million worldwide as a WORST case scenario. You’re thinking too conservatively -- Marvel wants home runs. The standards are different here. Thor is a triple, and anyone not in the cutthroat Hollywood business would be happy with that and the ensuing profits.

And I laughed more than five times. But Kristen Wiig’s lead performance is great and the story had insight. I’ll admit: I did not completely love BRIDESMAIDS. So that’s more credit than anyone can reasonably give most Hollywood comedies these days. Like many Apatow productions the movie’s structure is shaggy and most of the film is visually unexciting.

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